A scenario projects your emissions forward under a set of assumptions. Use it to see whether a plan gets you to your target.
Build a scenario
Go to Forecasting.
In the Scenarios panel, select Add scenario.
Name it, and choose a colour.
Add at least one parameter.
Save.
Each scenario draws a line on the chart. Use the visibility switch to compare several at once.
The four things you can model
Parameter | What it does |
Emission Source Change | Changes emissions from one emission factor by a percentage, by a date |
Supplier Target | Reduces one named supplier's emissions by a percentage, by a date |
Supplier Range Target | Reduces a band of suppliers by rank, such as your top 20, by a percentage |
Business Growth | Grows or shrinks your whole footprint by a percentage, by a date |
Combine parameters in one scenario. A scenario with growth of 10% and a supplier reduction of 30% shows the net effect.
A parameter's date has to be at least a year after your baseline year starts.
Supplier Range Target
Use this rather than adding suppliers one at a time.
If your plan is to engage your top 20 suppliers and get a 25% reduction from them, set the start rank to 1, the end rank to 20, and the reduction to 25. Ranking is by emissions.
What forecasting cannot model
The four parameters above are all there is. Avarni cannot model:
A reduction at a particular site or facility
A reduction by a tenant
A reduction in one Scope 3 category
A fuel switch, such as diesel to electric
A renewable electricity purchase or a power purchase agreement
Cost or abatement curves
Some of these can be approximated through the emission factor lever, if the thing you want to change maps to a single factor. A fleet fuel switch can be modelled as a reduction on the diesel factor, for example.
Where it does not map, model it outside Avarni.
Compare scenarios against your target
Your target trajectory draws on the same chart. A scenario line finishing above the target line means the plan does not get you there.
The chart runs to 2050.
Copy and export
Use Clone to make a variant of a scenario.
Download graph as CSV exports the lines with a column per period. There is no Excel or PDF export, and no side-by-side comparison view.